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西蒙满意度模型

百科 > 赫伯特·西蒙 > 西蒙满意度模型

1.西蒙满意度模型简介

满意度模型(Satisficing Model)是指人们做实际决策时,是以满意度最高的方案为准。

满意度模型是赫伯特·西蒙的思想。在考察了理性决策、追求最大化和最优化的决策模式后,西蒙提出,由于人的观念、智慧、认知力、知识、技能、精力、时间等等是有限的,所以人们不可能总是把所有的问题都考虑到,找到最佳的目标和最佳的方法,追求极大化;甚至,连最优化的可能都没有。有人认为可以是在特定条件下的最优,实际上,由于信息、认知、机遇、思考能力、未知的变化、甚至一念之差,他并不知道是不是当时的最优,其选择也不可能是已有条件下的最优。他可能对自己的偏好曲线都不知道,决策的依据是他当时的满意度。只要对决策的目标和执行的手段基本满意,他们就会做出决定,开始行动。后来的学者科亨和赛亚特,研究了许多公司的决策过程, 用经验性的数据证实了这个模式的存在。[1]从这一模式中引申出来的结论是,除了能力之外,决策者的见识、期望值在决策的过程中能起到十分重要的作用。

2.Economics

In economics, satisficing is a behavior which attempts to achieve at least some minimum level of a particular variable, but which does not necessarily maximize its value. The most common application of the concept in economics is in the behavioural theory of the firm, which, unlike traditional accounts, postulates that producers treat profit not as a goal to be maximized, but as a constraint. Under these theories, a critical level of profit must be achieved by firms; thereafter, priority is attached to the attainment of other goals.

3.Survey Taking

As an example of satisficing, in the field of social cognition, Jon Krosnick proposed a theory of statistical survey satisficing which says that optimal question answering by a survey respondent involves a great deal of cognitive work and that some people would use satisficing to reduce that burden. Some people may shortcut their cognitive processes in two ways:

  • Weak satisficing: Respondent executes all cognitive steps involved in optimizing, but less completely and with bias.
  • Strong satisficing: Respondent offers responses that will seem reasonable to the interviewer without any memory search or information integration.

Likelihood to satisfice is linked to respondent ability, respondent motivation and task difficulty

Regarding survey answers, satisficing manifests in:

  • choosing explicitly offered no-opinion response option
  • choosing socially desirable responses
  • non-differentiation when a battery of questions asks for ratings of multiple objects on the same response scale
  • acquiescence response bias, which is the tendency to agree with any assertion, regardless of its content

4.See also

  • decision theory
  • rational ignorance
  • alpha-beta pruning
  • frame problem
  • utility maximization problem
  • homo economicus
  • principle of good enough

5.External links

  • Web Dictionary of Cybernetics and Systems definition of "satisficing"
  • Michael Byron. Satisficing and Optimality. Ethics 109 (1998): 67-93. A paper on satisficing considered from a philosophical viewpoint.
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